The Supreme Court could strike down the heart of the overhaul, the individual mandate.
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to announce its ruling regarding the health care reform made through President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act of 2010, and some legal experts who have worked and argued within the court and before the justices have said that they don’t feel that the individual mandate will be upheld.
The data from an insider survey has indicated that this central element of the law may be struck down.
The survey included the participation of 58 legal experts and was performed following the conclusion of the oral arguments and showed that they believed that this central provision to the health care reform will be overturned. It is the portion of the law which would require the majority of Americans to buy a type of medical insurance that has met government standards.
This same survey was also held ahead of the hearings, at which time the prediction was the opposite.
At that time, the legal experts felt that the mandate would be upheld. The funding for this survey was provided by the American Action Forum (which is an organization that leans to the right), as well as a centrist group called Center Forward. Both of these organizations are located in Washington D.C. Conducting the study, was bipartisan consulting firm, Purple Insights.
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The participants in the survey were former clerks who had worked for both left- and right-leaning justices. Among them, 11 worked for Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayer, and Elena Kagan, who are traditionally liberal. Another 18 worked for the justices on the other side of the ideological spectrum, John Roberts, Clarance Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Antonin Scalia. Nine of the participants had worked for Anthony Kennedy.
According to Douglas Holz-Eakin, the American Action Forum president who had served under President George W. Bush, as Director of the Congressional Budget Office, “This is a fascinating snapshot of how true experts believe the Supreme Court will act on the future of American healthcare.” He then added about the health care reform ruling predictions, that “Experts believe the oral arguments revealed significant insights into the court’s thinking.”