Hurricane season prediction model redesigned for the U.S.

insurance news - atlantic hurricane season

AIR Worldwide has recently announced updates to its model, which now includes a range of new features.

The model used by AIR Worldwide, the catastrophe risk modeling firm, for predictions with respect to the hurricane season in the United States, has now been updated to take into account a number of new features and to provide a considerable amount of additional insight.

The update to the Hurricane Model for the United States now includes notably more depth and simulations.

The updates to the hurricane season forecast model includes a brand new and completely hydrodynamic storm surge module that brings together the parameters of a storm with high-res elevation data in order to be able to create simulations of the storm surge inundation extent and depth in a location-specific way. AIR’s comprehensive update is meant to help to ensure that insurers and reinsurers will be better able to comprehend and quantify the hurricane risk.

The update to the hurricane season risk predictions could provide the insurance industry with valuable insight.

insurance news  - hurricane seasonStorm surge is the outcome of a number of different factors, including the strength, size, speed, and direction of the storm, in addition to coastal geography and the heights of the tides. According to the AIR Worldwide assistant vice president and senior principal scientist, Dr. Tim Doggett, “Hurricane storm surge can be devastating, resulting in substantial damage and high insured losses.”

Dr. Doggett went on to add that the gradual rise in the density of the properties on the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States and the increase in their values is raising “the need for reliable information on storm surge risk. AIR’s new hydrodynamic storm surge module for the U.S. hurricane model represents state-of-the-art modeling techniques and the latest research on storm surge hazard to accurately assess risk at very high resolution.”

The new storm surge model updates in the AIR hurricane season predictions includes the NOAA’s Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, along with the US Geological Survey’s 30-meter National Elevation Dataset (NED), which is the same data that is utilized for the catastrophe risk modeling firm’s Inland Flood Model for the United States.

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