Two leading medical professionals have published a new analysis of the future of health insurance in the latest issue of Annals of Family Medicine. Richard A. Young and Jennifer E. Devoe have taken a look at the Affordable Care Act and how it will affect the health insurance industry from when it is fully enacted in 2014 to the state of the industry in 2037. The study assumes that the federal health care law is successful in its goal of lowering health insurance premiums. Despite this supposed success, the study claims that insurance premiums may be well beyond affordable in the future.
The study suggests that the rate at which health insurance rates are climbing will only be mildly mitigated by the Affordable Care Act. The federal law makes some changes to the basic structure of the health care system, but this will not be enough to inhibit the tide for long. Because of the structural problem with the system, the study notes that by 2021, health insurance premiums will be equal to half of the average household income in the U.S. By 2030, premiums will surpass the average household income, making health insurance unattainable for everyone in the U.S.
The study does not take into account the most recent data regarding health spending in the U.S. A report from the Center for Medicare Services notes that National Health Expenditures are growing at the same pace as the U.S. economy, not more quickly, as suggested by Young and Devoe.