Colorado State University experts predict an above average level of storm activity.
Meteorological experts at Colorado State University have released their 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season predictions. They predict that the six months starting in June will be more active than average.
Last year was a particularly catastrophic year for storms from June through November.
The most devastating was Hurricane Dorian, which came to a near rest over the Bahamas for 36 hours, leaving catastrophe behind. That was a massive Category 5 hurricane. It broke tropical storm intensity records for striking the Bahamas and left behind the worst natural disaster in the history of that nation of islands.
Though last year was certainly a difficult one, the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season looks as though it won’t be a sleepy one, either. The Colorado State University (CSU) researchers assembled their forecasts for the season starting June 1.
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Researchers predict more powerful tropical storms for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Among the top influences determining the intensity and frequency of tropical storms is in the presence of an El Niño or La Niña pattern. Each of those patterns has a different impact. The former typically means that the tropical and Caribbean Atlantic region will experience a higher amount of wind shear. That will disrupt tropical development.
On the other hand, the latter can bring rough tropical storms to the United States. Those patterns provide conditions that are favorable for increased tropical activity development. Moreover, when temperatures at the surface of the Atlantic are warmer than usual, it can lead to more tropical storm and cyclone development.
The average span of June 1 through November 30 usually includes 12 tropical storms, half of which become hurricanes. The CSU prediction for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is that the likely absence of an El Niño pattern will be more active than that. They predict that the summer or fall will transition to either a neutral El Niño or a weak La Niña. Moreover, the surface temperatures of the water are already warmer than usual, which could promote tropical storm activity. More detailed predictions are likely to be made closer to the start of June.